State the observed signal
Field guide / 05 of 07
Causality.
Make the field legible.
Causality asks how an outcome may have been produced. A pattern can prompt the question; it cannot answer it on its own.
Causality
01Signal
02Indicator
03Construct
04Reality
05Mechanism
OBSERVE → RELATE → REVISE
The reading frame
What to look for
before you decide.
What mechanism could explain this?
- 01Signal — an observed mark
- 02Indicator — a selected proxy
- 03Construct — an organising interpretation
- 04Reality — what exceeds the representation
- 05Mechanism — a plausible producing process
In practice
Three useful
moves.
Offer competing mechanisms
Seek evidence that can discriminate between them
Calibration notes
Correlation is not a mechanism
An observed effect does not prove an intended chain